• The Japanese Yen draws support from a combination of factors, albeit lacks follow-through.
• The USD remains depressed below a multi-month low and exerts some pressure on USD/JPY.
• Hawkish Fed expectations favour the USD bulls and should act as a tailwind for the major.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce against its American counterpart from the YTD through and oscillates in a narrow band during the Asian session on Wednesday. The subdued price action points to indecision amongst traders amid mixed fundamental cues, warranting some caution before positioning for the next leg of a directional move.

Japan’s real wages fell for the 21st straight month in December and household spending dropped for a tenth successive month, which is seen as an unwelcome development for the Bank of Japan (BoJ). This, along with a stable performance around the equity markets, holds back traders from placing fresh bullish bets around the safe-haven JPY. Market participants, meanwhile, seem convinced that wage growth this year may outpace that of 2023 and pave the way for the BoJ to exit its decade-long ultra-loose monetary policy. Apart from this, persistent worries about geopolitical risks stemming from conflicts in the Middle East and slowing growth in China act as a tailwind for the JPY.

The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, remains depressed below its highest level in almost three months touched earlier this week amid a modest downtick in the US Treasury bond yields. This, in turn, is seen as another factor exerting some pressure on the USD/JPY pair. That said, investors have been scaling back their expectations for early and steep interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the wake of the recent upbeat US macro data, which pointed to a still resilient US economy. This should act as a tailwind for the US bond yields and support prospects for the emergence of some USD dip-buying. Traders now look to the US Trade Balance data and Fedspeaks for a fresh impetus.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Japanese Yen struggles to capitalize on modest strength against USD

• The Japanese Yen draws support from hopes that another substantial pay hike this year will support sustained and stable inflation, and allow the Bank of Japan to pivot away from its ultra-dovish policy stance.
• Geopolitics, along with China’s economic woes, remain key risks for the markets, which benefits the safe-haven JPY and exerts pressure on the USD/JPY pair during the Asian session on Wednesday.
• The overnight sharp pullback in the US Treasury bond yields keeps the US Dollar bulls on the defensive and turns out to be another factor contributing to the mildly offered tone surrounding the major.
• Investors continue to scale back their expectations for early and steep rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the wake of a resilient US economy and the recent hawkish remarks by influential FOMC members.
• Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said on Tuesday that inflation must be moving sustainably lower to open rate cut door and that it would be a mistake to cut interest rates prematurely.
• Harker added that the recent news on inflation has been encouraging, though wage gains are still too high for getting to the 2% target and it is possible that inflation may be more persistent than expected.
• Separately, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said that we are not done yet on inflation and most of the disinflationary gains have come from the supply-side, but the data is looking positive.
• This comes on top of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks on Sunday, saying that a strong economy gives the central bank time to evaluate if inflation will continue to fall before starting to cut interest rates.
• The yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond holds above 4.0%, which supports prospects for the emergence of USD dip-buying and should act as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY needs to break below 100-day SMA for bears to seize intraday control

From a technical perspective, this week’s failure to find acceptance above the 148.80 level constitutes the formation of a bearish double-top pattern. That said, oscillators on the daily chart – though have been losing traction – are still holding in the positive territory and warrant some caution before positioning for deeper losses. That said, some follow-through selling below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently pegged near the 147.60-147.55 region, could drag the USD/JPY pair further towards the 147.00 round figure. A convincing break below the latter could accelerate the corrective decline further towards the 146.35 intermediate support en route to sub-146.00 levels, or the monthly low touched last week.

On the flip side, momentum back above the 148.00 mark now seems to confront some resistance near the 148.30-148.35 region. Bulls, meanwhile, are likely to wait for a sustained strength beyond the 148.80 double-top resistance before placing fresh bets. The USD/JPY pair might then surpass an intermediate hurdle near the 149.55-149.60 region and aim to reclaim the 150.00 psychological mark.

Japanese Yen price today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.