• Indian Rupee edges lower on the modest recovery of the US Dollar.
• The Indian economy is forecast to expand by 7.3% in the current fiscal year.
• The flash US Gross Domestic Product growth numbers (Q4) are due later on Thursday.

Indian Rupee (INR) loses ground on Thursday amid renewed US Dollar (USD) demand. According to the National Statistical Office’s first advance estimates of national income released in early January, the Indian economy is expected to expand at 7.3% in the current fiscal year, exceeding even experts’ most optimistic expectations. Nonetheless, concerns about rising inflation and higher crude oil prices due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might cap the INR’s upside in the near term.

Investors will take more cues from the US economic data that could further impact rate-cut expectations in the United States. The preliminary US Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q4) will be released on Thursday, which is estimated to expand by 2.0%.

Indian markets will be closed on Friday for Republic Day. Attention will shift to the release of the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (Core PCE) for December. Additionally, India’s interim budget for fiscal year 2024–25 (FY25) will be published on February 1.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Indian Rupee remains sensitive to higher food inflation and global factors

• Foreign investors have sold roughly $2 billion worth of Indian equities in January, following net buys of $7.9 billion the previous month.
• Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das said last week that monetary policy must remain actively disinflationary, despite the recent sharp fall in core inflation.
• India’s core inflation dropped to its lowest level in four years in December, raising the possibility that the rate-setting panel may adjust its position to “neutral” next month.
• The RBI is expected to target a narrower FY25 fiscal deficit of 5.3%–5.6% of GDP versus 5.9% in FY24.
  The US S&P Global Composite PMI for January signaled the fastest rise in business activity since June 2023, arriving at 52.3 versus 50.9 prior, beating the market expectations.
• The US S&P Global Services PMI rose to 52.9 in January from 51.4 in December. The manufacturing figure grew to 50.3 from 47.9 in the previous reading.
• Former St. Louis Federal Reserve (Fed) President James Bullard said on Tuesday that the central bank may begin cutting interest rates before inflation hits 2%, potentially as soon as March.

Technical Analysis: Indian Rupee remains confined in the 82.80–83.40 region

Indian Rupee weakens on the day. The USD/INR pair has remained stuck within the 82.80–83.40 trading range since September 2023. USD/INR resumes its upside as the pair holds above the key 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the 50.0 midline, suggesting the directionlessness of the pair for the time being.

The first upside barrier for USD/INR is seen at 83.40 (the upper boundary of the trading range). The next hurdle will emerge at 83.47 (2023 high) and 84.00 (round figure). On the other hand, the initial support level is seen at the 83.00 psychological mark. The next contention level is located at 82.80 (lower limit of the trading range, low of January 15) and 82.60 (low of August 11).

US Dollar price this week

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.